I’m not surprised that you would strongly disagree with this. Sorry if this is a bit blunt, but given that you very recently launched a public forecast on the love life of a community member, without their permission, to the dismay of many people on Twitter, I wouldn’t think you have a particularly calibrated frame of reference as to when we should hold off on bets.
As you might imagine, I also disagree about whether that market was per-se bad. I think that there was a small information cascade about that particular topic because people in the EA community didn’t want to appear mean, & so better epistemic infrastructure would have actually helped.
I ended up removing that market because I got too much pushback on it, including from my boss, but Twitter wasn’t actually up to to hosting a nuanced discussion on the pros and cons, just social opprobrium.
I’m not surprised that you would strongly disagree with this. Sorry if this is a bit blunt, but given that you very recently launched a public forecast on the love life of a community member, without their permission, to the dismay of many people on Twitter, I wouldn’t think you have a particularly calibrated frame of reference as to when we should hold off on bets.
As you might imagine, I also disagree about whether that market was per-se bad. I think that there was a small information cascade about that particular topic because people in the EA community didn’t want to appear mean, & so better epistemic infrastructure would have actually helped.
I ended up removing that market because I got too much pushback on it, including from my boss, but Twitter wasn’t actually up to to hosting a nuanced discussion on the pros and cons, just social opprobrium.