From what Daniel said I thought his median was 2028 when he started to write it? But that’s perhaps a bit nitpicky.
I think there might be a wider EA/Rationalist Comms issue here when communicating with the general public. Communicating projects like this isn’t just about whether it “feels” fine—I think its important to think about how it might come accross and future implications. To the general public, this scenario even in 2030 still feels mega-soon and sci-fi. The problem is if we go past 2027 now, many people will say “those tech-bro idiots they’re always wrong” and might miss the point o the thing
If anything I think here picking a more conservative, tail end of the timeline (2028-2030) would have been better, to keep it relevant for longer.
To be clear, I agree that we should make comms decisions based on what we think the effects will be, I wasn’t using “feel” intending to mean otherwise.
Thanks that’s helpful
From what Daniel said I thought his median was 2028 when he started to write it? But that’s perhaps a bit nitpicky.
I think there might be a wider EA/Rationalist Comms issue here when communicating with the general public. Communicating projects like this isn’t just about whether it “feels” fine—I think its important to think about how it might come accross and future implications. To the general public, this scenario even in 2030 still feels mega-soon and sci-fi. The problem is if we go past 2027 now, many people will say “those tech-bro idiots they’re always wrong” and might miss the point o the thing
If anything I think here picking a more conservative, tail end of the timeline (2028-2030) would have been better, to keep it relevant for longer.
I agree not the biggest deal though.
To be clear, I agree that we should make comms decisions based on what we think the effects will be, I wasn’t using “feel” intending to mean otherwise.