I agree that these are vague and could come apart from each other. But I don’t see any crisp, verifiable definitions that I could replace them with and serve the same purpose. I’m interested in forecasting transformative AI for the main purpose of forecasting when one has to have one’s AI-related impact by. e.g. by when do we need to have solved alignment (or to have paused AI development)?
If I instead used a verifiable definition here, such as the “In what year would AI systems be able to replace 99% of current fully remote jobs?” that I cite in the essay, then you have to do further forecasting of how that time relates to the key things that matter (such as the deadline on AI alignment). Also, for crisp concrete definitions, one tends to then get hung up on estimating exactly how hard the final 1% of current fully remote jobs are, because that is central to the prediction. For example, are there 1% of current fully remote jobs that we only let a human do, e.g. for reasons of legal responsibility or personal relationships? Maybe? But that isn’t relevant to the central features we care about.
I’m sure my definition could be improved (the focus of my essay isn’t on my prediction but on the wider points about everyone’s timelines), but I hope this explains why being “measurable and uncontroversial” need not make for the best thing to forecast.
I agree that these are vague and could come apart from each other. But I don’t see any crisp, verifiable definitions that I could replace them with and serve the same purpose. I’m interested in forecasting transformative AI for the main purpose of forecasting when one has to have one’s AI-related impact by. e.g. by when do we need to have solved alignment (or to have paused AI development)?
If I instead used a verifiable definition here, such as the “In what year would AI systems be able to replace 99% of current fully remote jobs?” that I cite in the essay, then you have to do further forecasting of how that time relates to the key things that matter (such as the deadline on AI alignment). Also, for crisp concrete definitions, one tends to then get hung up on estimating exactly how hard the final 1% of current fully remote jobs are, because that is central to the prediction. For example, are there 1% of current fully remote jobs that we only let a human do, e.g. for reasons of legal responsibility or personal relationships? Maybe? But that isn’t relevant to the central features we care about.
I’m sure my definition could be improved (the focus of my essay isn’t on my prediction but on the wider points about everyone’s timelines), but I hope this explains why being “measurable and uncontroversial” need not make for the best thing to forecast.