In addition to critical medication, I think it’s plausibly a good idea to stock up on significantly more than one month of handwashing soap (and maybe other soap too). (Tentatively suggesting 1-2 years).
Reasoning:
1. I’m not particularly worried about large-scale cuts for goods that have widespread availability (eg, food) and more worried about supply chain cuts for things that are relatively specific to coronavirus and other disaster-like scenarios.
2. (In America at least) Facemasks have been sold out for consumer use for several weeks; hand sanitizer has been somewhere between sold out and 10x more expensive in the last week. So some evidence that this will extend to other products.
3. Usage patterns are likely to change. For example I wouldn’t be surprised if people (including EAs) use 4-6x less hand soap than they should.
4. If you anticipate increasing usage rates in the coming months, it’s more prosocial to buy them now rather than in April/May so markets, factories, etc., have a chance to respond. (I find stockpiling masks much more iffy because 1. I think it’s plausible that it’d be hard to repurpose other factories for facemasks, whereas for hand sanitizer and soap it’s not hard to imagine relatively fast production changes, and 2. Outside of Asia, normal consumer usage of masks is pretty low so a sudden spike in demand might be harder to prepare for so it’s better to leave them for medical service provdiers).
5. Selfishly, the cost of doing this is very low (you can always spend down your soap if this turns out to be a nothing-burger), while the potential benefits are large.
Today I learned that my mother, while largely ignoring my suggestions to stock up on food, has quietly gone and bought lots of hand soap and basic medicines, both of which I didn’t think about until very recently. Interesting example of practical rationality at work.
In terms of hand sanitiser—in Brazil I’ve also found hand sanitiser is sold out or very expensive. However, here it is common to use 70% ethanol for household cleaning at it is possible to buy this in gel form as well, which is still well stocked and at normal prices. I expect this will work just as well for sanitisation. Would it be worth considering as an alternative if proper hand sanitiser is unavailable or for people on a budget (maybe it would leave you hands a bit dryer)?
I don’t recall seeing this product while living in Australia or Sweden, so I’m not sure how widely available it is. Here is a link to the last pack I bought, although there are many brands available in Brazil.
In addition to critical medication, I think it’s plausibly a good idea to stock up on significantly more than one month of handwashing soap (and maybe other soap too). (Tentatively suggesting 1-2 years).
Reasoning:
1. I’m not particularly worried about large-scale cuts for goods that have widespread availability (eg, food) and more worried about supply chain cuts for things that are relatively specific to coronavirus and other disaster-like scenarios.
2. (In America at least) Facemasks have been sold out for consumer use for several weeks; hand sanitizer has been somewhere between sold out and 10x more expensive in the last week. So some evidence that this will extend to other products.
3. Usage patterns are likely to change. For example I wouldn’t be surprised if people (including EAs) use 4-6x less hand soap than they should.
4. If you anticipate increasing usage rates in the coming months, it’s more prosocial to buy them now rather than in April/May so markets, factories, etc., have a chance to respond. (I find stockpiling masks much more iffy because 1. I think it’s plausible that it’d be hard to repurpose other factories for facemasks, whereas for hand sanitizer and soap it’s not hard to imagine relatively fast production changes, and 2. Outside of Asia, normal consumer usage of masks is pretty low so a sudden spike in demand might be harder to prepare for so it’s better to leave them for medical service provdiers).
5. Selfishly, the cost of doing this is very low (you can always spend down your soap if this turns out to be a nothing-burger), while the potential benefits are large.
Today I learned that my mother, while largely ignoring my suggestions to stock up on food, has quietly gone and bought lots of hand soap and basic medicines, both of which I didn’t think about until very recently. Interesting example of practical rationality at work.
What was her rationale for prioritizing hand soap over food?
In terms of hand sanitiser—in Brazil I’ve also found hand sanitiser is sold out or very expensive. However, here it is common to use 70% ethanol for household cleaning at it is possible to buy this in gel form as well, which is still well stocked and at normal prices. I expect this will work just as well for sanitisation. Would it be worth considering as an alternative if proper hand sanitiser is unavailable or for people on a budget (maybe it would leave you hands a bit dryer)?
I don’t recall seeing this product while living in Australia or Sweden, so I’m not sure how widely available it is. Here is a link to the last pack I bought, although there are many brands available in Brazil.
This is a good idea. I’ll add a recommendation on something to this effect in the doc. Thanks!