I feel slightly attacked, which I don’t think was your intention. I probably would have written a blunter response to someone elses, so i guess I’m a hypocrite. I wonder what the best forum responder in the world would look like.
On your first point, I think you are right. Causation and prediction markets are tricky. I guess I sort of think that there are bigger bottlenecks to figure out first. But maybe that’s lax of me.
On your second point. “I’m a bit suspicious of metrics that depend on a vote 5 years from now.” how do you reconcile this with OpenPhil’s grantmaking, which probably often takes 5+ years to resolve. Do you criticise them for this? Feels like not and apples to apples comparison if you don’t.
“me to believe that this is not a bad idea,” I mean, I think presumably it wouldn’t be a bad idea if it was a $50k grantmaker with a stopgap if it seemed to be funding obviously crazy or corrupt stuff. Feels like the bar of lizka thinking it’s actively good is too high. If I managed that in a quick blog post I think we’d be really impressed.
“I’m also honestly not sure why you seem so skeptical that manipulation wouldn’t happen,” has there ever been any prediction market manipulation. Seems like there are quite a lot of markets running all the time? Other than Keynesian Beauty Contests and markets where you can literally change the criteria[1], has it ever happened? @austin do you know of any, I can’t recall any. And if we think of examples of actual market manipulation, they would probably fool grantmakers too, right? And manifold’s betting is all public, so you can’t pump the market. I guess, “what’s your story for how this has ever happened in a way it might happen here?”
I guess, maybe pick one of these as your biggest criticism and I might spend 30 mins figuring out my response to it?
Also, I wish that the Futarchy post on the forum wiki was your post on futarchy. Then we could argue some of this there, in what I suggest would be the “best” place for it. I have edited the lesswrong tag in that rough direction
I seem to recall someone bought a load of cinema tickets to rig a market, but in our case the way to do that would be to change the final metric, which would likely be really good.
I feel slightly attacked, which I don’t think was your intention. I probably would have written a blunter response to someone elses, so i guess I’m a hypocrite. I wonder what the best forum responder in the world would look like.
On your first point, I think you are right. Causation and prediction markets are tricky. I guess I sort of think that there are bigger bottlenecks to figure out first. But maybe that’s lax of me.
On your second point. “I’m a bit suspicious of metrics that depend on a vote 5 years from now.” how do you reconcile this with OpenPhil’s grantmaking, which probably often takes 5+ years to resolve. Do you criticise them for this? Feels like not and apples to apples comparison if you don’t.
“me to believe that this is not a bad idea,” I mean, I think presumably it wouldn’t be a bad idea if it was a $50k grantmaker with a stopgap if it seemed to be funding obviously crazy or corrupt stuff. Feels like the bar of lizka thinking it’s actively good is too high. If I managed that in a quick blog post I think we’d be really impressed.
“I’m also honestly not sure why you seem so skeptical that manipulation wouldn’t happen,” has there ever been any prediction market manipulation. Seems like there are quite a lot of markets running all the time? Other than Keynesian Beauty Contests and markets where you can literally change the criteria[1], has it ever happened? @austin do you know of any, I can’t recall any. And if we think of examples of actual market manipulation, they would probably fool grantmakers too, right? And manifold’s betting is all public, so you can’t pump the market. I guess, “what’s your story for how this has ever happened in a way it might happen here?”
I guess, maybe pick one of these as your biggest criticism and I might spend 30 mins figuring out my response to it?
Also, I wish that the Futarchy post on the forum wiki was your post on futarchy. Then we could argue some of this there, in what I suggest would be the “best” place for it. I have edited the lesswrong tag in that rough direction
I seem to recall someone bought a load of cinema tickets to rig a market, but in our case the way to do that would be to change the final metric, which would likely be really good.