Many of the projects look good, but a handful seem to have gotten outlier success; I would count Lars and Will’s Valuebase, the Oxfendazole group, and our own Manifold as having gone on to raise millions in further funding.
Do you think there was a sense that this might be the case?
So right now, I’m most interested in mechanisms that help us find such founders/projects. Just daydreaming here, is there any kind of prediction mechanism that can turn out a report as informative as the ACX Grants 1-year project update?
I guess you could encourage anyone to make markets, not just the funders. Then have some way to select the 10 most interesting markets. If you wanted you could try and run an LLM to generate text for some kind of premortem. Seems a bit galaxy brained though.
Do you think there was a sense that this might be the case?
I guess you could encourage anyone to make markets, not just the funders. Then have some way to select the 10 most interesting markets. If you wanted you could try and run an LLM to generate text for some kind of premortem. Seems a bit galaxy brained though.