Thanks for the thoughts (and your posts on Futarchy years ago, I found them to be a helpful review of the literature!)
I’m a bit suspicious of metrics that depend on a vote 5 years from now.
I am too, though perhaps for different reasons. Long-term forecasting has slow feedback loops, and fast feedback loops are important for designing good mechanisms. Getting futarchy to be useful probably involves a lot of trial-and-error, which is hard when it takes you 5 years to assess “was this thing any good?”
Thanks for the thoughts (and your posts on Futarchy years ago, I found them to be a helpful review of the literature!)
I am too, though perhaps for different reasons. Long-term forecasting has slow feedback loops, and fast feedback loops are important for designing good mechanisms. Getting futarchy to be useful probably involves a lot of trial-and-error, which is hard when it takes you 5 years to assess “was this thing any good?”
Fwiw I think this is an issue with grantmaking too.