I’m more confused by how this apparent near future, current world resource base timeline interacts with the idea that this Dyson swarm is achieved clandestinely (I agree with your sentiment the “disassemble Mercury within 31 years” scenario is even more unlikely, though close to Mercury is a much better location for a Dyson swarm). Most of the stuff in the tech tree doesn’t exist yet and the entities working on it are separate and funding-starved: the relationship between entities writing papers about ISRU or designing rectenna for power transmission and an autonomous self-replicating deep space construction facility capable of acquiring unassailable dominance of the asteroid belt within a year is akin to the relationship between a medieval blacksmith and a gigafactory. You could close that gap more quickly with an larger-than-Apollo-scale joined up research endeavour, but that’s the opposite of discreet.
Stuff like the challenges of transmitting power/data over planetary distances and the constant battle against natural factors like ionizing radiation don’t exactly point towards permanent dominance by a single actor either.
I’m more confused by how this apparent near future, current world resource base timeline interacts with the idea that this Dyson swarm is achieved clandestinely (I agree with your sentiment the “disassemble Mercury within 31 years” scenario is even more unlikely, though close to Mercury is a much better location for a Dyson swarm). Most of the stuff in the tech tree doesn’t exist yet and the entities working on it are separate and funding-starved: the relationship between entities writing papers about ISRU or designing rectenna for power transmission and an autonomous self-replicating deep space construction facility capable of acquiring unassailable dominance of the asteroid belt within a year is akin to the relationship between a medieval blacksmith and a gigafactory. You could close that gap more quickly with an larger-than-Apollo-scale joined up research endeavour, but that’s the opposite of discreet.
Stuff like the challenges of transmitting power/data over planetary distances and the constant battle against natural factors like ionizing radiation don’t exactly point towards permanent dominance by a single actor either.