I Fermi estimate the disease burden of the Holocaust equals the disability of factory-farmed animals over 2.33 days.
I determine corporate campaigns for chicken welfare, such as the ones supported by The Humane League (THL), have a cost-effectiveness of 57.8 M$ per averted Holocaust.
Introduction
The Holocaust was horrible. The point of this post is not minimising its harm, but highlighting the huge scale of the suffering in factory-farms.
Badness of factory-farming
I calculated an annual disability of factory-farmed animals of 136 billion DALY[1].
I estimate a disease burden of the Holocaust of 867 MDALY (= 17*10^6*51.0), multiplying:
17 M people murdered in the Holocaust from 1941 to 1945.
51.0 DALY per person murdered in the Holocaust (= 67.5*0.756), which I got from the product between:
The disease burden per death for interpersonal violence in 2021 of 67.5 DALY (= 26.8*10^6/​(397*10^3)).
The ratio between the life expectancy at birth in Europe in 1943 (= (1941 + 1945)/​2) and 2019 of 75.6 % (= 59.8/​79.1). I determined the former to be 59.8 years (= 46.8 + (62.8 − 46.8)/​(1950 − 1913)*(1943 − 1913)) via linear interpolation.
Based on the above, the annual disability of factory-farmed animals is 157 (= 136*10^9/​(867*10^6)) times the disease burden of the Holocaust, which equals the disability of factory-farmed animals over 2.33 days (= 365.25/​157). There is also little funding helping farmed animals, so these are very neglected. In contrast, there was a global conflict related to the Holocaust, World War II.
The results do not change dramatically assuming all factory-farmed animals have neutral lives. For this case, I got an annual disability of factory-farmed animals of 26.8 billion DALY, i.e. 30.9 (= 26.8*10^9/​(867*10^6)) times the disease burden of the Holocaust, which equals the disability of factory-farmed animals with neutral lives over 11.8 days (= 365.25/​30.9).
I set the annual disability of a group of animals with neutral lives to the product between its population size and Rethink Priorities’ median welfare range. For instance, for the population of chickens in 2022 of 26.6 billion, I got an annual disability of 8.83 billion DALY (= 26.6*10^9*0.332), which is 32.9 % (= 8.83*10^9/​(26.8*10^9)) of the annual disability of all factory-farmed animals supposing they all had neutral lives.
Cost-effectiveness of corporate campaigns for chicken welfare
The suffering of factory-farmed animals is daunting, but there are very cost-effective ways of mitigating it. I calculated corporate campaigns for chicken welfare, such as the ones supported by THL, have a cost-effectiveness of 15.0 DALY/​$, or 57.8 M$ per averted Holocaust (= 867*10^6/​15.0).
In this post, disability of factory-farmed animals refers to the potential for increasing their (affective) welfare up to the level of fully healthy animals. It does not refer to actual disability, which is what the global burden of disease study (GBD) focuses on.
Factory-farming is as bad as one Holocaust every 2 days?
The views expressed here are my own, not those of my employers.
Summary
The Holocaust was horrible.
I Fermi estimate the disease burden of the Holocaust equals the disability of factory-farmed animals over 2.33 days.
I determine corporate campaigns for chicken welfare, such as the ones supported by The Humane League (THL), have a cost-effectiveness of 57.8 M$ per averted Holocaust.
Introduction
The Holocaust was horrible. The point of this post is not minimising its harm, but highlighting the huge scale of the suffering in factory-farms.
Badness of factory-farming
I calculated an annual disability of factory-farmed animals of 136 billion DALY[1].
I estimate a disease burden of the Holocaust of 867 MDALY (= 17*10^6*51.0), multiplying:
17 M people murdered in the Holocaust from 1941 to 1945.
51.0 DALY per person murdered in the Holocaust (= 67.5*0.756), which I got from the product between:
The disease burden per death for interpersonal violence in 2021 of 67.5 DALY (= 26.8*10^6/​(397*10^3)).
The ratio between the life expectancy at birth in Europe in 1943 (= (1941 + 1945)/​2) and 2019 of 75.6 % (= 59.8/​79.1). I determined the former to be 59.8 years (= 46.8 + (62.8 − 46.8)/​(1950 − 1913)*(1943 − 1913)) via linear interpolation.
Based on the above, the annual disability of factory-farmed animals is 157 (= 136*10^9/​(867*10^6)) times the disease burden of the Holocaust, which equals the disability of factory-farmed animals over 2.33 days (= 365.25/​157). There is also little funding helping farmed animals, so these are very neglected. In contrast, there was a global conflict related to the Holocaust, World War II.
The results do not change dramatically assuming all factory-farmed animals have neutral lives. For this case, I got an annual disability of factory-farmed animals of 26.8 billion DALY, i.e. 30.9 (= 26.8*10^9/​(867*10^6)) times the disease burden of the Holocaust, which equals the disability of factory-farmed animals with neutral lives over 11.8 days (= 365.25/​30.9).
I set the annual disability of a group of animals with neutral lives to the product between its population size and Rethink Priorities’ median welfare range. For instance, for the population of chickens in 2022 of 26.6 billion, I got an annual disability of 8.83 billion DALY (= 26.6*10^9*0.332), which is 32.9 % (= 8.83*10^9/​(26.8*10^9)) of the annual disability of all factory-farmed animals supposing they all had neutral lives.
Cost-effectiveness of corporate campaigns for chicken welfare
The suffering of factory-farmed animals is daunting, but there are very cost-effective ways of mitigating it. I calculated corporate campaigns for chicken welfare, such as the ones supported by THL, have a cost-effectiveness of 15.0 DALY/​$, or 57.8 M$ per averted Holocaust (= 867*10^6/​15.0).
In this post, disability of factory-farmed animals refers to the potential for increasing their (affective) welfare up to the level of fully healthy animals. It does not refer to actual disability, which is what the global burden of disease study (GBD) focuses on.