I think that one ultimate goal of prediction markets is to break out of the “enthusiast crowd” of rationalists and Phil Tetlock types who are excited about prediction markets for their own sake, and instead become a wider social norm among journalists, experts, politicians, etc, that if you aren’t willing to take a stand on prediction markets, you might be full of BS. The enthusiast crowd might flock to apps like Metaculus and Polymarket, but the wider “pundit crowd” might have to have prediction markets somewhat forced upon them, as something they must engage with if they want to build/maintain their reputation.
Yeah I discuss this ToC a bit in this thread, under “Forecasting as a general epistemics intervention.” I do think it’s plausible that this is great, but I don’t (currently) think it is the highest impact outcome of forecasting, relative to talent recruitment, early warning forecasting, or prediction-evaluation setups to improve research or grantmaking.
Yeah I discuss this ToC a bit in this thread, under “Forecasting as a general epistemics intervention.” I do think it’s plausible that this is great, but I don’t (currently) think it is the highest impact outcome of forecasting, relative to talent recruitment, early warning forecasting, or prediction-evaluation setups to improve research or grantmaking.