Since I’m now linking to this post decently often, I’ll mention a couple more sources that are somewhat relevant to the pros and cons of explicit, quantitative estimates, and best practices for making them. (But note that these sources aren’t about existential risk estimates in particular.)
Since I’m now linking to this post decently often, I’ll mention a couple more sources that are somewhat relevant to the pros and cons of explicit, quantitative estimates, and best practices for making them. (But note that these sources aren’t about existential risk estimates in particular.)
How to Measure Anything—Douglas Hubbard
Perhaps one of the most useful books I’ve read.
Luke Muehlhauser provides an excellent summary of key points. I recommend reading that, then feeling inspired to get the full book, then doing so.
Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking—Holden Karnofsky
I’ll probably add to this list over time. And see also the various sources linked to in this post itself.