You may very well already be aware of this (I didn’t look at the post or comments too closely), but Elicit IDE has a “Search Metaforecast database” tool to search forecasts on several sites that may be helpful to your existential risk forecast database project. Here are the first 120 results for “existential risk.”
From a very quick look, I think that most of the things in that spreadsheet are either already in this database, only somewhat relevant (e.g., general AI capabilities questions), or hardly relevant at all. But I wouldn’t be surprised if some fiddling around with that tool could narrow the results down to be more useful (I haven’t tried the tool yet), or if it becomes more useful in future.
You may very well already be aware of this (I didn’t look at the post or comments too closely), but Elicit IDE has a “Search Metaforecast database” tool to search forecasts on several sites that may be helpful to your existential risk forecast database project. Here are the first 120 results for “existential risk.”
Thanks for sharing that!
From a very quick look, I think that most of the things in that spreadsheet are either already in this database, only somewhat relevant (e.g., general AI capabilities questions), or hardly relevant at all. But I wouldn’t be surprised if some fiddling around with that tool could narrow the results down to be more useful (I haven’t tried the tool yet), or if it becomes more useful in future.