GiveWell writes that it has tracked ~$28 million in non-Good Ventures for 2015 (since February 2015), and they “plan to publish [their] annual metrics (covering February 1, 2015 – January 31, 2016) in March”. So a top quartile outcome for the revised predictions. Again, I commend you for putting up careful predictions where others did not.
Estimate for 2015: Median estimate of $18.7 million, 50% probability estimate of $16.2 million to $24.5 million.
Estimate for 2016: Median estimate of $25.3 million, 50% probability estimate of $17.5 million to $37.5 million.
Estimate for 2017: Median estimate of $30.1 million, 50% probability estimate of $19.5 million to $58 million.
GiveWell writes that it has tracked ~$28 million in non-Good Ventures for 2015 (since February 2015), and they “plan to publish [their] annual metrics (covering February 1, 2015 – January 31, 2016) in March”. So a top quartile outcome for the revised predictions. Again, I commend you for putting up careful predictions where others did not.
More recent estimates at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rIpnWtuYSfsjLWkJMO5FTOQE6SRGzJnnyFgyKSwIKOM/edit#gid=0