Thanks very much for writing this very interesting piece!
The “AI safety winter” section argues that pre-2020, AI alignment researchers made little progress because they had no AI to work on aligning. But now that we have GPT-4 etc., I feel like we have a capabilities overhang, and it seems like there is plenty of AI alignment researchers to work on for the next 6 months or so? Then their work could be ‘tested’ by allowing some more algorithmic progress.
Thanks very much for writing this very interesting piece!
The “AI safety winter” section argues that pre-2020, AI alignment researchers made little progress because they had no AI to work on aligning. But now that we have GPT-4 etc., I feel like we have a capabilities overhang, and it seems like there is plenty of AI alignment researchers to work on for the next 6 months or so? Then their work could be ‘tested’ by allowing some more algorithmic progress.