“returns that can later be deployed to greater altruistic effect as AI research progresses”
This is hiding an important premise, which is that you’ll actually be able to deploy those increased resources well enough to make up for the opportunities you forego now. E.g. Paul thinks that (as an operationalisation of slow takeoff) the economy will double in 4 years before the first 1 year doubling period starts. So after that 4 year period you might end up with twice as much money but only 1 or 2 years to spend it on AI safety.
Good point – thank you for drawing out that premise.
I find myself getting confused as I think about the year-to-year operationalization of a slow takeoff (the distinction between slow and fast takeoff starts to blur).
It seems like the thing we really care about is AI systems falling out of alignment with our intentions as they grow more capable, and it’s not clear where “falling out of alignment” starts in the GDP-doubling framework.
I’ll think about this more & update here once/if it crystallizes.
February 2021 update:I thought about it some more; I now feel confident that I’ll be able to deploy the gains well enough to make up for the opportunity cost.
“returns that can later be deployed to greater altruistic effect as AI research progresses”
This is hiding an important premise, which is that you’ll actually be able to deploy those increased resources well enough to make up for the opportunities you forego now. E.g. Paul thinks that (as an operationalisation of slow takeoff) the economy will double in 4 years before the first 1 year doubling period starts. So after that 4 year period you might end up with twice as much money but only 1 or 2 years to spend it on AI safety.
Good point – thank you for drawing out that premise.
I find myself getting confused as I think about the year-to-year operationalization of a slow takeoff (the distinction between slow and fast takeoff starts to blur).
It seems like the thing we really care about is AI systems falling out of alignment with our intentions as they grow more capable, and it’s not clear where “falling out of alignment” starts in the GDP-doubling framework.
I’ll think about this more & update here once/if it crystallizes.
February 2021 update: I thought about it some more; I now feel confident that I’ll be able to deploy the gains well enough to make up for the opportunity cost.