Happy to make a bet here – let’s figure out an operationalization that would satisfy all parties!
fwiw 21.5% of 2019 EA survey respondents thought Mental Health should be “top or near top priority” and 58.5% though it should receive “at least significant resources”.
I’m sure we can quibble about how the “Mental Health” should map to the “Psychedelics” category, though it seems clear that psychedelics are one of the most promising developments in mental health in the last few decades (breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and all that).
If we assume half of the above considered psychedelics to be in the mental health bucket, then 10.75% of 2019 respondents thought psychedelics should be “top or near top priority” and 29.25% thought that psychedelics should receive “at least significant” EA resources. (And so I’d win the bet under that operationalization, though I suppose we’d also have to quibble over how “receive at least significant resources” maps to “plausible top EA cause area”...)
I’m sure we can quibble about how the “Mental Health” should map to the “Psychedelics” category, though it seems clear that psychedelics are one of the most promising developments in mental health in the last few decades (breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and all that).
If we assume half of the above considered psychedelics to be in the mental health bucket …
This does not seem like a quibble to me at all. It seems ‘clear’ to you but this is by no means the case for most people. I would happily bet that well under half of those people were thinking psychedelics when they said mental health.
Even if we assume that only 25% of Mental Health supporters were thinking of psychedelics, that’s still 15% of survey respondents saying that psychedelics should receive “at least significant” EA resources.
0.585 * .25 = 0.15 [edited to correct double-counting]
I don’t think you can add the percentages for “top or near top priority” and “at least significant resources”. If you look at the row for global poverty, the percentages add up to over 100% (61.7% + 87.0% = 148.7%), which means the table is double counting some people.
Looking at the bar graph above the table, it looks like “at least significant resources” includes everyone in “significant resources”, “near-top priority”, and “top priority”. For mental health it looks like “significant resources” has 37%, and “near-top priority” and “top priority” combined have 21.5% (shown as 22% in the bar graph).
So your actual calculation would just be 0.585 * .25 which is about 15%.
It seems clear to me because most mental health professionals I’ve encountered in the last ~2 years agree that psychedelics are the most innovative thing coming into mainstream Western mental health since SSRIs came online in the 1990s.
There’s an obvious sampling bias here, but I’ve seen this from many people who are personally skeptical or uncertain about psychedelics and still agree that the early trials are extremely promising, not just from enthusiasts.
You can also see it in the media coverage – there’s a lot of positive press about the psychedelic renaissance and some voices of caution too, but basically no negative press. (And the voices of caution are mostly saying “this is a very powerful thing that needs to be managed carefully.”)
Happy to make a bet here – let’s figure out an operationalization that would satisfy all parties!
fwiw 21.5% of 2019 EA survey respondents thought Mental Health should be “top or near top priority” and 58.5% though it should receive “at least significant resources”.
I’m sure we can quibble about how the “Mental Health” should map to the “Psychedelics” category, though it seems clear that psychedelics are one of the most promising developments in mental health in the last few decades (breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and all that).
If we assume half of the above considered psychedelics to be in the mental health bucket, then 10.75% of 2019 respondents thought psychedelics should be “top or near top priority” and 29.25% thought that psychedelics should receive “at least significant” EA resources. (And so I’d win the bet under that operationalization, though I suppose we’d also have to quibble over how “receive at least significant resources” maps to “plausible top EA cause area”...)
This does not seem like a quibble to me at all. It seems ‘clear’ to you but this is by no means the case for most people. I would happily bet that well under half of those people were thinking psychedelics when they said mental health.
Even if we assume that only 25% of Mental Health supporters were thinking of psychedelics, that’s still 15% of survey respondents saying that psychedelics should receive “at least significant” EA resources.
0.585 * .25 = 0.15 [edited to correct double-counting]
Honestly I would assume less; I voted for Mental Health thinking of Strong Minds.
Ditto to both parts of this
I don’t think you can add the percentages for “top or near top priority” and “at least significant resources”. If you look at the row for global poverty, the percentages add up to over 100% (61.7% + 87.0% = 148.7%), which means the table is double counting some people.
Looking at the bar graph above the table, it looks like “at least significant resources” includes everyone in “significant resources”, “near-top priority”, and “top priority”. For mental health it looks like “significant resources” has 37%, and “near-top priority” and “top priority” combined have 21.5% (shown as 22% in the bar graph).
So your actual calculation would just be 0.585 * .25 which is about 15%.
Good point, thanks. I’ve edited my comment to correct the double-counting.
Fair enough.
It seems clear to me because most mental health professionals I’ve encountered in the last ~2 years agree that psychedelics are the most innovative thing coming into mainstream Western mental health since SSRIs came online in the 1990s.
There’s an obvious sampling bias here, but I’ve seen this from many people who are personally skeptical or uncertain about psychedelics and still agree that the early trials are extremely promising, not just from enthusiasts.
You can also see it in the media coverage – there’s a lot of positive press about the psychedelic renaissance and some voices of caution too, but basically no negative press. (And the voices of caution are mostly saying “this is a very powerful thing that needs to be managed carefully.”)
I’d like to take Buck’s side of the bet as well if you’re willing to bet more