since this depends mostly on theoretical questions and extremely long-term effects that you can’t really measure.
This itself is the sort of hypothesis that we wish to test by doing additional research. What sort of actions, if any, have ever had predictable long term consequences? What is the actual time horizon of e.g. qualitative predictions (unknown) vs quantitative predictions (around 400 days according to superforecasting work so far).
This itself is the sort of hypothesis that we wish to test by doing additional research. What sort of actions, if any, have ever had predictable long term consequences? What is the actual time horizon of e.g. qualitative predictions (unknown) vs quantitative predictions (around 400 days according to superforecasting work so far).