The median superforecaster gave a 0.38% risk of extinction due to AI by 2100, while the median AI domain expert gave a 3.9% risk of extinction.
Tetlock’s previous results show that domain experts are not very good at making predictions, and that superforecasters are significantly better. We should all revise our views on AI xrisk.
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Tetlock on low AI xrisk
Tetlock’s previous results show that domain experts are not very good at making predictions, and that superforecasters are significantly better. We should all revise our views on AI xrisk.