I cannot think of any plausible ways in which these three random variables correlate. Surely learning that the price of vitamin A tablets just doubled (C) does not affect how effective they are
Price and effectiveness correlate because people are willing to pay higher prices for more effective things. One reason the price would double abruptly is because of new information indicating higher effectiveness.
Ah good point, OK I think I was too bold there. Perhaps the weaker thing I should have said is that I don’t think these effects would be large and that I don’t have a good suggestion for what GiveWell could practically do to implement any possible correlations among these variables.
Price and effectiveness correlate because people are willing to pay higher prices for more effective things. One reason the price would double abruptly is because of new information indicating higher effectiveness.
Ah good point, OK I think I was too bold there. Perhaps the weaker thing I should have said is that I don’t think these effects would be large and that I don’t have a good suggestion for what GiveWell could practically do to implement any possible correlations among these variables.
Do you think you making that mistake could serve as a good model for how they could have made the mistakes that you think they made?
Yes perhaps, I suppose one disanalogy is the length of time spent thinking about the topic—I would hope GiveWell’s work is more thorough than mine.