From Astral Codex Ten
FRI called back a few XPT forecasters in May 2023 to see if any of them wanted to change their minds, but they mostly didn’t.
Weird. Does this mean they predicted GPT-4′s performance in advance (and also didn’t let that update them toward doom)!?
Perhaps it’s less surprising given who counted as ‘superforecasters’, cf magic9mushroom’s comment here? I’m not sure how much their personal anecdote as participant generalizes though.
From Astral Codex Ten
Weird. Does this mean they predicted GPT-4′s performance in advance (and also didn’t let that update them toward doom)!?
Perhaps it’s less surprising given who counted as ‘superforecasters’, cf magic9mushroom’s comment here? I’m not sure how much their personal anecdote as participant generalizes though.