Greg_Colbourn comments on What do XPT forecasts tell us about AI risk?

Greg_Colbourn 20 Jul 2023 18:09 UTC
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Forecasters stopped updating their forecasts on 31st October 2022
Would be interested to see an update post-chatGPT (esp. GPT-4). I know a lot of people who have reduced their timelines/increased their p(doom) in the last few months.
What links here?
- Greg_Colbourn's comment on Timelines are short, p(doom) is high: a global stop to frontier AI development until x-safety consensus is our only reasonable hope by Greg_Colbourn (12 Oct 2023 15:03 UTC; 4 points)
- ChanaMessinger 21 Jul 2023 9:35 UTC
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  From Astral Codex Ten
  FRI called back a few XPT forecasters in May 2023 to see if any of them wanted to change their minds, but they mostly didn’t.
  - Greg_Colbourn 21 Jul 2023 10:15 UTC
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    Weird. Does this mean they predicted GPT-4′s performance in advance (and also didn’t let that update them toward doom)!?
    - Mo Putera 24 Jul 2023 9:32 UTC
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      Perhaps it’s less surprising given who counted as ‘superforecasters’, cf magic9mushroom’s comment here? I’m not sure how much their personal anecdote as participant generalizes though.