Thanks I really like this, and would appreciate some examples so I can get my head around this. It might be hard without being uncharitable, but I struggle to think of concrete examples at thte moment.
I guess any of the following might be examples (emphasis on might):
it seems bad to buy expensive historic buildings, which don’t seem fit-for-purpose for the proposed use case and have really high running costs—but the people involved are really smart, so...
it seems bad to fly people to the Bahamas to do coworking and collaboration, and like this is being driven by a billionaire’s desire for company and personal convenience. It seems like this wouldn’t be the method you would choose if you were starting from a point of maximising impact and cost-effectiveness—but the people seem really smart
it seems bad that the largest recipients of funding from the FTX Future Fund are organisations where one of the FTX grantmakers sits on their Board, but...
it seems very very very bad to say you would take the bet every time, if someone told you that there was a 51% chance that you’d double the universe and a 49% chance that you’d destroy it, but...
I’m not sure if people did defer to these arguments because of the people making them rather than a sincere belief that they are good, but it seems at least possible (especially the last one).
And 100% agree with you that I assessed all of those examples above and was bewildered that so many people seemed to defend them, often based on the fact that “smart and good people” had made the decision
Or, senior AI researcher says that AI poses no risk because it’s years away. This doesn’t really make sense—what will happen in a few years? But he does seem smart and work for a prestigious tech company, so...
Thanks I really like this, and would appreciate some examples so I can get my head around this. It might be hard without being uncharitable, but I struggle to think of concrete examples at thte moment.
I guess any of the following might be examples (emphasis on might):
it seems bad to buy expensive historic buildings, which don’t seem fit-for-purpose for the proposed use case and have really high running costs—but the people involved are really smart, so...
it seems bad to fly people to the Bahamas to do coworking and collaboration, and like this is being driven by a billionaire’s desire for company and personal convenience. It seems like this wouldn’t be the method you would choose if you were starting from a point of maximising impact and cost-effectiveness—but the people seem really smart
it seems bad that the largest recipients of funding from the FTX Future Fund are organisations where one of the FTX grantmakers sits on their Board, but...
it seems very very very bad to say you would take the bet every time, if someone told you that there was a 51% chance that you’d double the universe and a 49% chance that you’d destroy it, but...
I’m not sure if people did defer to these arguments because of the people making them rather than a sincere belief that they are good, but it seems at least possible (especially the last one).
Fantastic examples, I understand it better now
And 100% agree with you that I assessed all of those examples above and was bewildered that so many people seemed to defend them, often based on the fact that “smart and good people” had made the decision
Nice one
Or, senior AI researcher says that AI poses no risk because it’s years away. This doesn’t really make sense—what will happen in a few years? But he does seem smart and work for a prestigious tech company, so...