Thanks for this clarification. After reading the emails I wanted to make exactly this point!
I do think that comparing how good saving a life today is compared to doing something like building bunkers to reduce risk really comes down to an understanding of the world today rather than an understanding of exactly how big the future might be (after you grant that it could be very big). Though choosing 5 as a multiplier looks rather low to me; I’d be happier with something up in 100-1000 range (and I wouldn’t be surprised if my view of the correct figure to use there changes substantially in the future).
Thanks for this clarification. After reading the emails I wanted to make exactly this point!
I do think that comparing how good saving a life today is compared to doing something like building bunkers to reduce risk really comes down to an understanding of the world today rather than an understanding of exactly how big the future might be (after you grant that it could be very big). Though choosing 5 as a multiplier looks rather low to me; I’d be happier with something up in 100-1000 range (and I wouldn’t be surprised if my view of the correct figure to use there changes substantially in the future).
I agree with all of that, though maybe I’m a bit more queasy about numbers >100.