I have been working on a tweet length version of this argument for a while. I encourage someone to beat me to it. I agree with Neel and Scott (and Carl Shulman) that this argument is much more succinct and emotive and I think I should get better at making it.
Something like:
[quote tweeting a poll on survival to 2100] 38% of my followers think there is a > 5% chance all humans are dead by 2100. Let’s assume they are way wrong and it’s only .5%.
[how does this compare to other things that might kill you]
[how does this compare in terms of spending to how much ought to be spent to how much is]
I have been working on a tweet length version of this argument for a while. I encourage someone to beat me to it. I agree with Neel and Scott (and Carl Shulman) that this argument is much more succinct and emotive and I think I should get better at making it.
Something like:
[quote tweeting a poll on survival to 2100] 38% of my followers think there is a > 5% chance all humans are dead by 2100. Let’s assume they are way wrong and it’s only .5%.
[how does this compare to other things that might kill you]
[how does this compare in terms of spending to how much ought to be spent to how much is]
Here is v1.0. Can you do better? https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1512000005254664194?s=20&t=LnIr0K87oWgFlqP6qKH4IQ