Can I ask your rationale for P(AI created in next 20 years): Up?
Also note that the longer we delay the arrival of general AI, the more hardware and data will be available for it to immediately capitalize upon. So it’s not entirely clear that delaying AI development is good.
Can I ask your rationale for P(AI created in next 20 years): Up?
Increased US military spending will result in more resources attempting to create AI. In a climate of lower international cooperation, other countries will hasten their efforts as well.
So it’s not entirely clear that delaying AI development is good
Agreed. Many of my updates can be viewed as good, depending on your value system and other beliefs. However, forcing myself to guess, I think we have moved further away from the ideal, cooperative future—e.g. something inspired by CEV.
Well, the military itself spends very little on AI and none on cutting edge AI. What really matters is DARPA, IARPA, and whatever else might be going on in hidden parts of the intel community and DoD.
The bulk of AI development is the tech industry and academia. I think these areas are likely to be hurt by the administration.
You’re right, I meant to say “Increased US defense spending” not “Increased US military spending”. I inaccurately use “military” as a synonym of “defense” sometimes.
From Trump’s website: “Emphasize cyber warfare...and create a state-of-the-art cyber defense and offense.”
I think these areas are likely to be hurt by the administration
Maybe, but I’m not so sure the effect will be large enough.
Well cyber has little to do with AI; DARPA and IARPA cyber and AI teams are quite separate, and the service branches don’t do any AI with their cyber teams. The only exception is with the DARPA automated cyber grand challenge this year, but even it wasn’t really doing things that would accelerate AI development.
My point is more that since AI is isolated behind so many layers of budget allocation and is such a tiny slice, that changes at the top level are likely to not change anything.
Have you considered how Peter Thiel, big-time AI safety supporter, is to become one of Trump’s key policy advisers on technology, and will have an unprecedented opportunity to shape the policy on AI going forward?
Here’s a list of some updates I made, which were influenced by both the presidential and Congressional elections:
P(Anthropogenic global catastrophe): Up
P(Extinction before AI): Up
P(World government): Down
If AI is created:
P(AI created in next 20 years): Up
P(AI created by a military): Up
P(AI arms race): Up
P(Unfriendly AI): Up
In the near-term:
P(Poultry or fish included in Humane Slaughter Act): Down
P(Humane Slaughter Act effectively enforced): Down
P(Rising global productivity growth): Down
P(Higher US income inequality): Up
So...not great for most value systems.
Can I ask your rationale for P(AI created in next 20 years): Up?
Also note that the longer we delay the arrival of general AI, the more hardware and data will be available for it to immediately capitalize upon. So it’s not entirely clear that delaying AI development is good.
Increased US military spending will result in more resources attempting to create AI. In a climate of lower international cooperation, other countries will hasten their efforts as well.
Agreed. Many of my updates can be viewed as good, depending on your value system and other beliefs. However, forcing myself to guess, I think we have moved further away from the ideal, cooperative future—e.g. something inspired by CEV.
Well, the military itself spends very little on AI and none on cutting edge AI. What really matters is DARPA, IARPA, and whatever else might be going on in hidden parts of the intel community and DoD.
The bulk of AI development is the tech industry and academia. I think these areas are likely to be hurt by the administration.
You’re right, I meant to say “Increased US defense spending” not “Increased US military spending”. I inaccurately use “military” as a synonym of “defense” sometimes.
From Trump’s website: “Emphasize cyber warfare...and create a state-of-the-art cyber defense and offense.”
Maybe, but I’m not so sure the effect will be large enough.
Well cyber has little to do with AI; DARPA and IARPA cyber and AI teams are quite separate, and the service branches don’t do any AI with their cyber teams. The only exception is with the DARPA automated cyber grand challenge this year, but even it wasn’t really doing things that would accelerate AI development.
My point is more that since AI is isolated behind so many layers of budget allocation and is such a tiny slice, that changes at the top level are likely to not change anything.
Have you considered how Peter Thiel, big-time AI safety supporter, is to become one of Trump’s key policy advisers on technology, and will have an unprecedented opportunity to shape the policy on AI going forward?