(That comes from modeling incidents and catastrophe|incidents as two different beta distributions, and updating upwards on the prevalence of incidents, and a bit downwards on the prevalence of catastrophes given an incidence. The update ends up such that the overall chance of catastrophes also rises, by the factor that Misha mentioned.)
Makes sense. I was thinking for a minute that it meant something like the more near misses, the lower the overall chance of catastrophe. That would be weird, but not impossible I guess.
(That comes from modeling incidents and catastrophe|incidents as two different beta distributions, and updating upwards on the prevalence of incidents, and a bit downwards on the prevalence of catastrophes given an incidence. The update ends up such that the overall chance of catastrophes also rises, by the factor that Misha mentioned.)
Makes sense. I was thinking for a minute that it meant something like the more near misses, the lower the overall chance of catastrophe. That would be weird, but not impossible I guess.