I take the point no 3 above that it’s relatively late in the game, the edges seem mostly agreed-upon, etc. This is the sort of analysis that I think should be done. I would like to see a brainstorm of scenarios that could lead to war & an attempt to estimate their probability.
I agree that this would be good to have in the abstract. But it would also be much more expensive and time-consuming, and I expect not all that much better than our current guess and current more informal/intuitive/unwritten models.
And because I/we think that this is probably not a Cuban missile crisis situation, I think it would mostly not be worth it.
Fair enough! I’m grateful for all the work you’ve already done and don’t think it’s your job to do more research in the areas that would be more convincing to me.
Deeper analysis needed?
I agree that this would be good to have in the abstract. But it would also be much more expensive and time-consuming, and I expect not all that much better than our current guess and current more informal/intuitive/unwritten models.
And because I/we think that this is probably not a Cuban missile crisis situation, I think it would mostly not be worth it.
Fair enough! I’m grateful for all the work you’ve already done and don’t think it’s your job to do more research in the areas that would be more convincing to me.