I’d like to challenge the assumption that EA is the “largest and smartest” expert group on “Might AI lead to extinction?”. I don’t think this is true?
You seem to imply that there is another expert group which discusses the question of extinction from AI deeply (and you consider the possibility that the other group is in some sense “better” at answering the question)
I’m not necessarily implying that. EA is not an expert group on AI. There are some experts among us (many of which work at big AI labs, doing valuable research), but most people here discussing it aren’t experts. Furthermore, discussing a question ‘deeply’ does not guarantee that your answer is more accurate (especially if there’s more than one ‘deep’ way to discuss it).
I would defer to AI experts, or to the world at large, more than I would to just EA alone. But either of those groups carries uncertainty and internal disagreement—and indeed, the best conclusion might just be that the answer is currently uncertain. And that we therefore need (as many experts outside EA have now come to support) to engage many more people and institutions in a collaborative effort to mitigate the possible danger.
You seem to imply that there is another expert group which discusses the question of extinction from AI deeply (and you consider the possibility that the other group is in some sense “better” at answering the question)
Who are these people?
I’m not necessarily implying that. EA is not an expert group on AI. There are some experts among us (many of which work at big AI labs, doing valuable research), but most people here discussing it aren’t experts. Furthermore, discussing a question ‘deeply’ does not guarantee that your answer is more accurate (especially if there’s more than one ‘deep’ way to discuss it).
I would defer to AI experts, or to the world at large, more than I would to just EA alone. But either of those groups carries uncertainty and internal disagreement—and indeed, the best conclusion might just be that the answer is currently uncertain. And that we therefore need (as many experts outside EA have now come to support) to engage many more people and institutions in a collaborative effort to mitigate the possible danger.