Apologies, I misunderstood a fundamental aspect of what youāre doing! For some reason in my head youād picked a set of conjectures which had just been posited this year, and were seeing how Laplaceās rule of succession would perform when using it to extrapolate forward with no historical input.
I donāt know where I got this wrong impression from, because you state very clearly what youāre doing in the first sentence of your post. I should have read it more carefully before making the bold claims in my last comment. I actually even had a go at stating the terms of the bet I suggested before quickly realising what Iād missed and retracting. But if you want to hold me to it you can (I might be interpreting the forum wrong but I think you can still see the deleted comment?)
Iām not embarrassed by my original concern about the dimensions, but your original reply addressed them nicely and I can see it likely doesnāt make a huge difference here whether you take a year or a month, at least as long as the conjecture was posited a good number of years ago (in the limit that ātrial periodā/āātime since positedā goes to zero, you presumably recover the timeless result you referenced).
New EA forum suggestion: you should be able to disagree with your own comments.
Apologies, I misunderstood a fundamental aspect of what youāre doing! For some reason in my head youād picked a set of conjectures which had just been posited this year, and were seeing how Laplaceās rule of succession would perform when using it to extrapolate forward with no historical input.
I donāt know where I got this wrong impression from, because you state very clearly what youāre doing in the first sentence of your post. I should have read it more carefully before making the bold claims in my last comment. I actually even had a go at stating the terms of the bet I suggested before quickly realising what Iād missed and retracting. But if you want to hold me to it you can (I might be interpreting the forum wrong but I think you can still see the deleted comment?)
Iām not embarrassed by my original concern about the dimensions, but your original reply addressed them nicely and I can see it likely doesnāt make a huge difference here whether you take a year or a month, at least as long as the conjecture was posited a good number of years ago (in the limit that ātrial periodā/āātime since positedā goes to zero, you presumably recover the timeless result you referenced).
New EA forum suggestion: you should be able to disagree with your own comments.
Hey, Iām not in the habit of turning down free money, so feel free to make a small donation to https://āāwww.every.org/āāquantifieduncertainty
Sure, will do!