Removing nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine was an extremely important success. Had Ukraine tried to retain nuclear weapons, I believe an armed conflict with Russia would have broken out in the 1990’s.
There are many other things that could have been done to prevent Russia’s unprovoked, illegal attack on Ukraine. Ukraine keeping nuclear weapons is not one of them.
Every specific case is different. I’m not sure that we can generalize and state that nuclear weapons make war less likely. That said, I am a supporter of stable deterrence for the U.S. and its Allies. In my view so-called tactical nuclear weapons weaken deterrence. Do we really want Putin to think that use of a “small” nuclear weapon would be met with a proportionate nuclear response?
“There are many other things that could have been done to prevent Russia’s unprovoked, illegal attack on Ukraine. Ukraine keeping nuclear weapons is not one of them.”
Could you explain your thinking more for those not familiar with the military strategy involved? What about having nuclear weapons makes an invasion more viable? Which specific alternatives would be more useful in preventing the attacks and why?
See my comments above on Iran. A tougher response to Putin’s attack on Georgia in 2008 and the illegal occupation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014 might have prevented Putin’s terrible decision to invade in 2022. We could have provide more military assistance and training to Ukraine after 2014. Perhaps we should have been more receptive to Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.
Removing nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine was an extremely important success. Had Ukraine tried to retain nuclear weapons, I believe an armed conflict with Russia would have broken out in the 1990’s.
There are many other things that could have been done to prevent Russia’s unprovoked, illegal attack on Ukraine. Ukraine keeping nuclear weapons is not one of them.
Could you explain your reasoning here? My impression was that nukes generally make war less likely (through deterrence) but more costly if it occurs.
Every specific case is different. I’m not sure that we can generalize and state that nuclear weapons make war less likely. That said, I am a supporter of stable deterrence for the U.S. and its Allies. In my view so-called tactical nuclear weapons weaken deterrence. Do we really want Putin to think that use of a “small” nuclear weapon would be met with a proportionate nuclear response?
“There are many other things that could have been done to prevent Russia’s unprovoked, illegal attack on Ukraine. Ukraine keeping nuclear weapons is not one of them.”
Could you explain your thinking more for those not familiar with the military strategy involved? What about having nuclear weapons makes an invasion more viable? Which specific alternatives would be more useful in preventing the attacks and why?
See my comments above on Iran. A tougher response to Putin’s attack on Georgia in 2008 and the illegal occupation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014 might have prevented Putin’s terrible decision to invade in 2022. We could have provide more military assistance and training to Ukraine after 2014. Perhaps we should have been more receptive to Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.