This isn’t what you asked, but out of all the applications that we receive (excluding desk rejections), 5-20% seem ex ante net-negative to me, in the sense that I expect someone giving funding to them to make the world worse. In general, worries about accidental harm do not play a major role in my decisions not to fund projects, and I don’t think we’re very risk-averse. Instead, a lot of rejections happen because I don’t believe the project will have a major positive impact.
I include the opportunity cost of the broader community (e.g., the project hires people from the community who’d otherwise be doing more impactful work), but not the opportunity cost of providing the funding. (This is what I meant to express with “someone giving funding to them”, though I think it wasn’t quite clear.)
This isn’t what you asked, but out of all the applications that we receive (excluding desk rejections), 5-20% seem ex ante net-negative to me, in the sense that I expect someone giving funding to them to make the world worse. In general, worries about accidental harm do not play a major role in my decisions not to fund projects, and I don’t think we’re very risk-averse. Instead, a lot of rejections happen because I don’t believe the project will have a major positive impact.
are you including opportunity cost in the consideration of net harm?
I include the opportunity cost of the broader community (e.g., the project hires people from the community who’d otherwise be doing more impactful work), but not the opportunity cost of providing the funding. (This is what I meant to express with “someone giving funding to them”, though I think it wasn’t quite clear.)