OK, on a second thought I think this argument doesn’t work because it’s basically double-counting: the reason why returns might not diminish much faster than logarithmic may be precisely that new, ‘crazy’ opportunities become available.
A production function roughly along the lines of utility = funding ^ 0.2 * talent ^ 0.6 (this has diminishing returns to funding*talent, but the returns diminish slowly)
A default assumption that longtermism will eventually end up with $30-$300B in funding, let’s assume $100B
Increasing the funding from $100B to $200B would then increase utility by 15%.
OK, on a second thought I think this argument doesn’t work because it’s basically double-counting: the reason why returns might not diminish much faster than logarithmic may be precisely that new, ‘crazy’ opportunities become available.
Here’s a toy model:
A production function roughly along the lines of utility = funding ^ 0.2 * talent ^ 0.6 (this has diminishing returns to funding*talent, but the returns diminish slowly)
A default assumption that longtermism will eventually end up with $30-$300B in funding, let’s assume $100B
Increasing the funding from $100B to $200B would then increase utility by 15%.