Thanks for these links. I know a little about the satisficerās curse, and share the view that āThis generalization doesnāt obviously seem to differentially affect explicit probabilities though.ā Hopefully Iāll have time to look into the other two things you mention at some point.
(My kneejerk reaction to āāfast and frugalā heuristics often just perform better than more formal, quantitative modelsā is that if itās predictable that a heuristic would result in more accurate answers, even if we imagine we could have unlimited time for computations or whatever, then that fact, and ideally whatever causes it, can just be incorporated into the explicit model. But thatās just a kneejerk reaction. And in any case, if heās just saying that in practice heuristics are often better, then I totally agree.)
Thanks for these links. I know a little about the satisficerās curse, and share the view that āThis generalization doesnāt obviously seem to differentially affect explicit probabilities though.ā Hopefully Iāll have time to look into the other two things you mention at some point.
(My kneejerk reaction to āāfast and frugalā heuristics often just perform better than more formal, quantitative modelsā is that if itās predictable that a heuristic would result in more accurate answers, even if we imagine we could have unlimited time for computations or whatever, then that fact, and ideally whatever causes it, can just be incorporated into the explicit model. But thatās just a kneejerk reaction. And in any case, if heās just saying that in practice heuristics are often better, then I totally agree.)