Thanks for these links. I know a little about the satisficer’s curse, and share the view that “This generalization doesn’t obviously seem to differentially affect explicit probabilities though.” Hopefully I’ll have time to look into the other two things you mention at some point.
(My kneejerk reaction to “”fast and frugal” heuristics often just perform better than more formal, quantitative models” is that if it’s predictable that a heuristic would result in more accurate answers, even if we imagine we could have unlimited time for computations or whatever, then that fact, and ideally whatever causes it, can just be incorporated into the explicit model. But that’s just a kneejerk reaction. And in any case, if he’s just saying that in practice heuristics are often better, then I totally agree.)
Thanks for these links. I know a little about the satisficer’s curse, and share the view that “This generalization doesn’t obviously seem to differentially affect explicit probabilities though.” Hopefully I’ll have time to look into the other two things you mention at some point.
(My kneejerk reaction to “”fast and frugal” heuristics often just perform better than more formal, quantitative models” is that if it’s predictable that a heuristic would result in more accurate answers, even if we imagine we could have unlimited time for computations or whatever, then that fact, and ideally whatever causes it, can just be incorporated into the explicit model. But that’s just a kneejerk reaction. And in any case, if he’s just saying that in practice heuristics are often better, then I totally agree.)