Besides the point that “shoddy toy models” might be emotionally charged, I just want to point out that accelerating progress majorly increases variance and unknown unknowns? The higher energy a system is and the more variables you have the more chaotic it becomes. So maybe an answer is that a agile short-range model is the best? Outside view it in moderation and plan with the next few years being quite difficult to predict?
You don’t really need another model to disprove an existing one, you might as well point out that we don’t know and that is okay too.
Besides the point that “shoddy toy models” might be emotionally charged, I just want to point out that accelerating progress majorly increases variance and unknown unknowns? The higher energy a system is and the more variables you have the more chaotic it becomes. So maybe an answer is that a agile short-range model is the best? Outside view it in moderation and plan with the next few years being quite difficult to predict?
You don’t really need another model to disprove an existing one, you might as well point out that we don’t know and that is okay too.