I recently made a forecast based on the METR paper with median 2030 timelines and much less probability on 2027 (<10%). I think this forecast of mine is weaker to much fewer of titotal’s critiques, but still weak to some (especially not having sufficient uncertainty around the type of curve to fit).
I recently made a forecast based on the METR paper with median 2030 timelines and much less probability on 2027 (<10%). I think this forecast of mine is weaker to much fewer of titotal’s critiques, but still weak to some (especially not having sufficient uncertainty around the type of curve to fit).