I was thinking the reference class was something like “people explicitly orienting their actions for the benefit of far future generations.”
I was trying to be more specific than every good deed that also benefits the future. I didn’t want to include things like “this vaccine will save our children (and future generations)” or “we will win this war against our evil enemy (and also for our children’s sake)”.
What seems new about longtermism to me is not the belief that good things will have positive consequences in the long-run- “classic” EA and bednet funders think that- but that decisions should be made specifically with the future as the primary end in mine. That’s what seems to distinguish Ord and MacAskill from other EA’s and altruists in general.
I agree with your suggested examples in the end- and some other commenters suggested some other movements to consider- so I want to revisit this topic with a better collection of examples. I don’t want to be unfair to longtermists despite my skepticism of their emphasis.
Anti-nuclear advocates frequently talk about the long time that certain isotopes need to decay.
Stewart Brand who came out of the environmentalist field founded the LongNow foundation and there are plenty of people in that field who think similar to him.
I was thinking the reference class was something like “people explicitly orienting their actions for the benefit of far future generations.”
I was trying to be more specific than every good deed that also benefits the future. I didn’t want to include things like “this vaccine will save our children (and future generations)” or “we will win this war against our evil enemy (and also for our children’s sake)”.
What seems new about longtermism to me is not the belief that good things will have positive consequences in the long-run- “classic” EA and bednet funders think that- but that decisions should be made specifically with the future as the primary end in mine. That’s what seems to distinguish Ord and MacAskill from other EA’s and altruists in general.
I agree with your suggested examples in the end- and some other commenters suggested some other movements to consider- so I want to revisit this topic with a better collection of examples. I don’t want to be unfair to longtermists despite my skepticism of their emphasis.
Anti-nuclear advocates frequently talk about the long time that certain isotopes need to decay.
Stewart Brand who came out of the environmentalist field founded the LongNow foundation and there are plenty of people in that field who think similar to him.