This is a cool post. Though, I wonder if there’s switching between longtermism as a theory of what matters vs the idea you should try to act over long timescales (as with a 200yr foundation).
You could be a longtermist in terms of what you think is of moral value, but believe the best way to benefit the future (instrumentally) is to ‘make it to the next rung’. Indeed this seems like what Toby, Will etc. basically think.
Maybe then relevant reference class is more something like ‘people motivated to help future generations but who did that by solving certain problems of the day’, which seems a very broad and maybe successful reference class - eg encompassing many scientists, activists etc.
PS shouldn’t the environmentalism, climate change and anti nuclear movements be part of your reference class?
I was thinking the reference class was something like “people explicitly orienting their actions for the benefit of far future generations.”
I was trying to be more specific than every good deed that also benefits the future. I didn’t want to include things like “this vaccine will save our children (and future generations)” or “we will win this war against our evil enemy (and also for our children’s sake)”.
What seems new about longtermism to me is not the belief that good things will have positive consequences in the long-run- “classic” EA and bednet funders think that- but that decisions should be made specifically with the future as the primary end in mine. That’s what seems to distinguish Ord and MacAskill from other EA’s and altruists in general.
I agree with your suggested examples in the end- and some other commenters suggested some other movements to consider- so I want to revisit this topic with a better collection of examples. I don’t want to be unfair to longtermists despite my skepticism of their emphasis.
Anti-nuclear advocates frequently talk about the long time that certain isotopes need to decay.
Stewart Brand who came out of the environmentalist field founded the LongNow foundation and there are plenty of people in that field who think similar to him.
This is a cool post. Though, I wonder if there’s switching between longtermism as a theory of what matters vs the idea you should try to act over long timescales (as with a 200yr foundation).
You could be a longtermist in terms of what you think is of moral value, but believe the best way to benefit the future (instrumentally) is to ‘make it to the next rung’. Indeed this seems like what Toby, Will etc. basically think.
Maybe then relevant reference class is more something like ‘people motivated to help future generations but who did that by solving certain problems of the day’, which seems a very broad and maybe successful reference class - eg encompassing many scientists, activists etc.
PS shouldn’t the environmentalism, climate change and anti nuclear movements be part of your reference class?
I was thinking the reference class was something like “people explicitly orienting their actions for the benefit of far future generations.”
I was trying to be more specific than every good deed that also benefits the future. I didn’t want to include things like “this vaccine will save our children (and future generations)” or “we will win this war against our evil enemy (and also for our children’s sake)”.
What seems new about longtermism to me is not the belief that good things will have positive consequences in the long-run- “classic” EA and bednet funders think that- but that decisions should be made specifically with the future as the primary end in mine. That’s what seems to distinguish Ord and MacAskill from other EA’s and altruists in general.
I agree with your suggested examples in the end- and some other commenters suggested some other movements to consider- so I want to revisit this topic with a better collection of examples. I don’t want to be unfair to longtermists despite my skepticism of their emphasis.
Anti-nuclear advocates frequently talk about the long time that certain isotopes need to decay.
Stewart Brand who came out of the environmentalist field founded the LongNow foundation and there are plenty of people in that field who think similar to him.