FTX, which itself runs prediction markets, might be particularly well-suited for prediction-market interventions like this. I myself think that they could do a lot to advance people’s understanding of prediction markets if in addition to their presidential prediction market, they also offered a conditional prediction market of how an indicator like the S&P 500 would do 1 week after the 2024 election, conditional on the Republicans winning vs the Democrats winning. Conditional prediction markets for important indicators on big national elections would provide both directly useful info in addition to educating people about prediction markets’ potential.
FTX, which itself runs prediction markets, might be particularly well-suited for prediction-market interventions like this. I myself think that they could do a lot to advance people’s understanding of prediction markets if in addition to their presidential prediction market, they also offered a conditional prediction market of how an indicator like the S&P 500 would do 1 week after the 2024 election, conditional on the Republicans winning vs the Democrats winning. Conditional prediction markets for important indicators on big national elections would provide both directly useful info in addition to educating people about prediction markets’ potential.