Experimental Wargames for Great Power War and Biological Warfare
Biorisk and Recovery from Catastrophe, Epistemic Institutions
This is a proposal to fund a series of “experimental wargames,” on great power war and biological warfare. Wargames have long been a standard tool of think tanks, the military, and the academic IR world since the early Cold War. Until recently, however, these games were largely used to uncover unknown unknowns and help with scenario planning. Most such games continue to be unscientific exercises. Recent work on “experimental wargames” (see, e.g. this paper on drones and escalation), however, has leveraged wargaming methods with randomly-assigned groups and varying scenarios to see how decision-makers will react in hypothetical crisis situations. A series of well-designed experimental wargames on crisis decision-making in a great power confrontation or during a biological attack could help identify weaknesses, quantify risks, and uncover cognitive biases at work in high-pressure decision-making. Additionally, they would have the added benefit of raising awareness about global catastrophic risks.
Experimental Wargames for Great Power War and Biological Warfare
Biorisk and Recovery from Catastrophe, Epistemic Institutions
This is a proposal to fund a series of “experimental wargames,” on great power war and biological warfare. Wargames have long been a standard tool of think tanks, the military, and the academic IR world since the early Cold War. Until recently, however, these games were largely used to uncover unknown unknowns and help with scenario planning. Most such games continue to be unscientific exercises. Recent work on “experimental wargames” (see, e.g. this paper on drones and escalation), however, has leveraged wargaming methods with randomly-assigned groups and varying scenarios to see how decision-makers will react in hypothetical crisis situations. A series of well-designed experimental wargames on crisis decision-making in a great power confrontation or during a biological attack could help identify weaknesses, quantify risks, and uncover cognitive biases at work in high-pressure decision-making. Additionally, they would have the added benefit of raising awareness about global catastrophic risks.