I think it is pretty unlikely that VR improvements on the scale of 3y make people stop caring about being actually in person. This is a really hard problem that people have been working on for decades, and while we have definitely made a lot of progress if we were 3y from âwho needs offices?â I would expect to already see many early adopters pushing VR as a comfortable environment for general work (VR desktop) or meetings.
This is a really hard problem that people have been working on for decades
What problem are you referring to. Face tracking and remote presence didnât have a hardware platform at all until 2016, and wasnât a desirable product until maybe this year (mostly due to covid), and wont be a strongly desirable product until hardware starts to improve dramatically next year. And due to the perversity of social software economics, it wont be profitable in proportion to its impact, so itâll come late.
There are currently zero non-blurry face tracking headsets with that are light enough to wear throughout a workday, so you should expect to not see anyone using VR for work. But we know that next year there will be at least one of those (appleâs headset). It will appear suddenly and without any viable intermediaries. This could be a miracle of apple, but from what I can tell, itâs not. Competitors will be capable of similar feats a few years later.
(I expect to see limited initial impact from applevr (limited availability and reluctance from apple to open the gates), the VR office wont come all at once, even though the technical requirements will.)
(You can get headsets with adequate visual acuity (60ppd) right now, but theyâre heavy, which makes them less convenient to use than 4k screens. Theyâre expensive, and they require a bigger, heavier, and possibly even more expensive computer to drive them (though this was arguably partly a software problem), which also means they wont have the portability benefits that 2025â˛s VR headsets will have, which means theyâre not going to be practical for much at all, and afaik the software for face tracking isnât available for them, and even if it were, it wouldnât have a sufficiently large user network in professional realms.)
I think it is pretty unlikely that VR improvements on the scale of 3y make people stop caring about being actually in person. This is a really hard problem that people have been working on for decades, and while we have definitely made a lot of progress if we were 3y from âwho needs offices?â I would expect to already see many early adopters pushing VR as a comfortable environment for general work (VR desktop) or meetings.
What problem are you referring to. Face tracking and remote presence didnât have a hardware platform at all until 2016, and wasnât a desirable product until maybe this year (mostly due to covid), and wont be a strongly desirable product until hardware starts to improve dramatically next year. And due to the perversity of social software economics, it wont be profitable in proportion to its impact, so itâll come late.
There are currently zero non-blurry face tracking headsets with that are light enough to wear throughout a workday, so you should expect to not see anyone using VR for work. But we know that next year there will be at least one of those (appleâs headset). It will appear suddenly and without any viable intermediaries. This could be a miracle of apple, but from what I can tell, itâs not. Competitors will be capable of similar feats a few years later.
(I expect to see limited initial impact from applevr (limited availability and reluctance from apple to open the gates), the VR office wont come all at once, even though the technical requirements will.)
(You can get headsets with adequate visual acuity (60ppd) right now, but theyâre heavy, which makes them less convenient to use than 4k screens. Theyâre expensive, and they require a bigger, heavier, and possibly even more expensive computer to drive them (though this was arguably partly a software problem), which also means they wont have the portability benefits that 2025â˛s VR headsets will have, which means theyâre not going to be practical for much at all, and afaik the software for face tracking isnât available for them, and even if it were, it wouldnât have a sufficiently large user network in professional realms.)