Thanks for writing this, I like the forensic approach. I’ve long wished there was more discussion of the VWH paper, so it’s been great to see yours and Maxwell Tabarrok’s post in recent weeks.
Not an objection to your argument, but minor quibble with your reconstructed Bostrom argument:
P4: Ubiquitous real-time worldwide surveillance is the best way to decrease the risk of global catastrophes
I think it’s worth noting that the paper’s conclusion is that both ubiquitous surveillance andeffective global governance are required for avoiding existential catastrophe,[1] even if only discussing one of these.
[Disclaimer: I work for Nick Bostrom, these are my personal views]
from conclusion: “We traced the root cause of our civilizational exposure to two structural properties of the contemporary world order: on the one hand, the lack of preventive policing capacity to block, with extremely high reliability, individuals or small groups from carrying out actions that are highly illegal; and, on the other hand, the lack of global governance capacity to reliably solve the gravest international coordination problems even when vital national interests by default incentivize states to defect. General stabilization against potential civilizational vulnerabilities [...] would require that both of these governance gaps be eliminated.”
Thanks for writing this, I like the forensic approach. I’ve long wished there was more discussion of the VWH paper, so it’s been great to see yours and Maxwell Tabarrok’s post in recent weeks.
Not an objection to your argument, but minor quibble with your reconstructed Bostrom argument:
I think it’s worth noting that the paper’s conclusion is that both ubiquitous surveillance and effective global governance are required for avoiding existential catastrophe,[1] even if only discussing one of these.
[Disclaimer: I work for Nick Bostrom, these are my personal views]
from conclusion: “We traced the root cause of our civilizational exposure to two structural properties of the contemporary world order: on the one hand, the lack of preventive policing capacity to block, with extremely high reliability, individuals or small groups from carrying out actions that are highly illegal; and, on the other hand, the lack of global governance capacity to reliably solve the gravest international coordination problems even when vital national interests by default incentivize states to defect. General stabilization against potential civilizational vulnerabilities [...] would require that both of these governance gaps be eliminated.”