I’m excited to read this series!
It would take a lot of nuclear weapons to produce nuclear winter climate effects, so if we’re particularly worried about nuclear winter, we should focus on nuclear exchange scenarios that would involve large nuclear arsenals.
I don’t think this is quite right. Robock 2007 finds a severe nuclear winter effect from an exchange with just 100x 15kt bombs. AFAIK, the only country with an arsenal below that threshold today is North Korea, which would suggest that — on Robock’s modelling at least—any bilateral exchange involving nuclear powers other than NK is large enough to pose a significant risk of nuclear winter.
General comment: Huge fan of the newsletter, and think it’s awesome you’re doing this sort of review. I should also caveat that I’m not an AIS researcher, so not exactly target audience.
My first guess is that there’s significant value in someone maintaining an open, exhaustive database of AIS research. My main uncertainty is whether you are the best positioned to do this as things ramp up. It is plausible to me that an org with a safety team (e.g. DeepMind/OpenAI) is already doing this in-house, or planning to do so. It’s less clear that they would be willing to maintain a public resource. I’d want to verify this, and make sure that you’re coordinating with them to avoid any unnecessary duplication. More broadly, these labs might have some good systems in place for maintaining databases of new research in areas with a much higher volume than AIS, so could potentially share some best-practices.
Thanks for clarifying, that seems reasonable.
FWIW I share the view that sending all 4 volumes might not be optimal. I think I’d find it a nuisance to receive such a large/heavy item (~3 litres/~2kg by my estimate) unsolicited.
$43/unit is still quite high—could you elaborate a bit more?