In addition to what Michael A. said, a 1 in 3 chance that cause A is more effective than cause B means even though we should generally prefer cause B, there could be high value to doing more prioritization research on A vs. B, because it’s not too unlikely that we decide A > B. So “The EA community generally underrates the significance of long-term x-risk reduction” could mean there’s not enough work on considering the expected value of long-term x-risk reduction.
In addition to what Michael A. said, a 1 in 3 chance that cause A is more effective than cause B means even though we should generally prefer cause B, there could be high value to doing more prioritization research on A vs. B, because it’s not too unlikely that we decide A > B. So “The EA community generally underrates the significance of long-term x-risk reduction” could mean there’s not enough work on considering the expected value of long-term x-risk reduction.
Got it, thanks! Yeah this is what I meant by “probabilities over probabilities.”