Yes please. This is a great idea and I would want us to move towards a culture where this is more common. Even better if we can use logarithmic odds instead, but I understand that is a harder sell.
Talking about probabilities makes sense for repeated events where we care about the proportion of outcomes. This is not the case for existential risk.
Also I am going to be pedantic and point out that Tao’s example about the election is misleading. The percentage is not the chances of winning the election! Instead is the pollling results. The implicit probability being discussed is the chances of the election outcome given the polling, that is a far more extreme probability depending on how representative the poll is and how close the results are.
Yes please. This is a great idea and I would want us to move towards a culture where this is more common. Even better if we can use logarithmic odds instead, but I understand that is a harder sell.
Talking about probabilities makes sense for repeated events where we care about the proportion of outcomes. This is not the case for existential risk.
Also I am going to be pedantic and point out that Tao’s example about the election is misleading. The percentage is not the chances of winning the election! Instead is the pollling results. The implicit probability being discussed is the chances of the election outcome given the polling, that is a far more extreme probability depending on how representative the poll is and how close the results are.