Yes, this comes down to empirics: the fraction of extra resources we can reach by starting earlier is very small, so most of our long-term impact comes from nudges to the probability of having a long future at all.
It seems like the empirical question could have come out the other way, and then progress would be more important.
Or a light-cone that started a year earlier, and thus permanently one extra light year in radius.
Yes, this comes down to empirics: the fraction of extra resources we can reach by starting earlier is very small, so most of our long-term impact comes from nudges to the probability of having a long future at all.
It seems like the empirical question could have come out the other way, and then progress would be more important.