The difficulty with this position is that it assumes the funds were stolen. We’re still waiting for a court to decide that.
I disagree that we have to wait for a court ruling before making reasonable inferences. We can judge the situation on a balance of probabilities, and it seems overwhelmingly likely that yes he took user deposits and used them directly, including getting out a $1b personal loan.
What if 20% of FTX’s losses are due to fraud, but 80% are due to some non-criminal combination of negligence and risk seeking?
It’s not like he only lost his investment capital, or only lost money loaned to FTX for business purposes. You can chalk those up to bad business, even negligence.
He lost the deposits! That’s not just bad business. Even his own excuse, in the Twitter DM with Piper, is that the money was deposited in an Alameda account and they just never sent that $8b to FTX. I don’t think this story at all adds up, but even just that version of events is enough to say that there was no attempt to separate the user deposits from FTX’s working capital.
I disagree that we have to wait for a court ruling before making reasonable inferences. We can judge the situation on a balance of probabilities, and it seems overwhelmingly likely that yes he took user deposits and used them directly, including getting out a $1b personal loan.
It’s not like he only lost his investment capital, or only lost money loaned to FTX for business purposes. You can chalk those up to bad business, even negligence.
He lost the deposits! That’s not just bad business. Even his own excuse, in the Twitter DM with Piper, is that the money was deposited in an Alameda account and they just never sent that $8b to FTX. I don’t think this story at all adds up, but even just that version of events is enough to say that there was no attempt to separate the user deposits from FTX’s working capital.