The difficulty with this position is that it assumes the funds were stolen. We’re still waiting for a court to decide that. A couple possibilities
What if FTX was law-abiding (just stupid) until recently. At the time Amy received her funds, FTX hadn’t yet started committing fraud
What if 20% of FTX’s losses are due to fraud, but 80% are due to some non-criminal combination of negligence and risk seeking?
In both cases, Amy is just an innocent bystander. It’s reasonable for her to buy insurance
Alternatively, if it turns out that FTX was entirely a fraud, then Bill still pays out the entire value of the clawback. The defrauded people are actually better off, since Bill ensures the funds will still be available
Insurance is just a good way to deal with uncertainty. It’s a positive-sum trade with a positive externality:
Amy reduces her risk in exchange for a negative EV
Bill gets a positive EV in exchange for extra risk
People seeking clawbacks are more likely to be made whole
The difficulty with this position is that it assumes the funds were stolen. We’re still waiting for a court to decide that.
I disagree that we have to wait for a court ruling before making reasonable inferences. We can judge the situation on a balance of probabilities, and it seems overwhelmingly likely that yes he took user deposits and used them directly, including getting out a $1b personal loan.
What if 20% of FTX’s losses are due to fraud, but 80% are due to some non-criminal combination of negligence and risk seeking?
It’s not like he only lost his investment capital, or only lost money loaned to FTX for business purposes. You can chalk those up to bad business, even negligence.
He lost the deposits! That’s not just bad business. Even his own excuse, in the Twitter DM with Piper, is that the money was deposited in an Alameda account and they just never sent that $8b to FTX. I don’t think this story at all adds up, but even just that version of events is enough to say that there was no attempt to separate the user deposits from FTX’s working capital.
The difficulty with this position is that it assumes the funds were stolen. We’re still waiting for a court to decide that. A couple possibilities
What if FTX was law-abiding (just stupid) until recently. At the time Amy received her funds, FTX hadn’t yet started committing fraud
What if 20% of FTX’s losses are due to fraud, but 80% are due to some non-criminal combination of negligence and risk seeking?
In both cases, Amy is just an innocent bystander. It’s reasonable for her to buy insurance
Alternatively, if it turns out that FTX was entirely a fraud, then Bill still pays out the entire value of the clawback. The defrauded people are actually better off, since Bill ensures the funds will still be available
Insurance is just a good way to deal with uncertainty. It’s a positive-sum trade with a positive externality:
Amy reduces her risk in exchange for a negative EV
Bill gets a positive EV in exchange for extra risk
People seeking clawbacks are more likely to be made whole
I disagree that we have to wait for a court ruling before making reasonable inferences. We can judge the situation on a balance of probabilities, and it seems overwhelmingly likely that yes he took user deposits and used them directly, including getting out a $1b personal loan.
It’s not like he only lost his investment capital, or only lost money loaned to FTX for business purposes. You can chalk those up to bad business, even negligence.
He lost the deposits! That’s not just bad business. Even his own excuse, in the Twitter DM with Piper, is that the money was deposited in an Alameda account and they just never sent that $8b to FTX. I don’t think this story at all adds up, but even just that version of events is enough to say that there was no attempt to separate the user deposits from FTX’s working capital.