In practice, “the charity that has the highest EV on the current margin” is more complicated than you may realize; see e.g. Section 1.3 of froolow’s post on incorporating uncertainty analysis in cost-effectiveness modeling, showing how any of GiveWell’s (older list of) top charities could be highest EV given reasonable assumptions:
and when:
I think it’s also worth noting that GiveWell’s CEAs don’t actually calculate CE on the margin, and not the marginal impact of the donor’s dollar but of all dollars generated by the donated dollar via leverage/funging (2nd bullet point in the Errors section); I was confused by this when I first tried to replicate (one column of) GW’s AMF CEA.
Another reason is just bets-hedging. It’s probably unwise to put all one’s eggs in one basket, not just due to theoretical considerations like moral uncertainty but operational considerations as well, like whether the organization can deliver on the forecasted impact next year (as someone directly impacted by the recent fiasco this is front-of-mind).
I’m also personally torn between EV-maxing and risk aversion. The former suggests donating to longtermist charities and the latter to GiveDirectly; I care that I have some impact as much as(?) I care about the opportunity cost of missing out on more impact. This is a little like how I think about personal investing, although in the latter case risk aversion is greater.
Frankly this may just be me failing to find the right numbers or something, but I’d be curious to know if you yourself have identified any single charity you consider highest-EV on the margin (not historical EV), and what that EV number is (and preferably a link to how it’s calculated).
In practice, “the charity that has the highest EV on the current margin” is more complicated than you may realize; see e.g. Section 1.3 of froolow’s post on incorporating uncertainty analysis in cost-effectiveness modeling, showing how any of GiveWell’s (older list of) top charities could be highest EV given reasonable assumptions:
and when:
I think it’s also worth noting that GiveWell’s CEAs don’t actually calculate CE on the margin, and not the marginal impact of the donor’s dollar but of all dollars generated by the donated dollar via leverage/funging (2nd bullet point in the Errors section); I was confused by this when I first tried to replicate (one column of) GW’s AMF CEA.
Another reason is just bets-hedging. It’s probably unwise to put all one’s eggs in one basket, not just due to theoretical considerations like moral uncertainty but operational considerations as well, like whether the organization can deliver on the forecasted impact next year (as someone directly impacted by the recent fiasco this is front-of-mind).
I’m also personally torn between EV-maxing and risk aversion. The former suggests donating to longtermist charities and the latter to GiveDirectly; I care that I have some impact as much as(?) I care about the opportunity cost of missing out on more impact. This is a little like how I think about personal investing, although in the latter case risk aversion is greater.
Frankly this may just be me failing to find the right numbers or something, but I’d be curious to know if you yourself have identified any single charity you consider highest-EV on the margin (not historical EV), and what that EV number is (and preferably a link to how it’s calculated).