Do you have examples of heuristics you use to prospectively assess whether an action is going to have a large impact on the far future?
Is it similar to the sort of actions I believe have had a large impact on the future in the past?
Got it. Is there an easy-to-articulate description of how you build the set of past actions that you believe had a large impact on the future?
Use what I’ve read about history to try & think of historical events I think were pivotal which share important similarities with the action in question, and also try to estimate the base rate of historical people taking actions similar to the action in question in order to have an estimate for the denominator.
If I was trying to improve my ability in this area, I might read books by Peter Turchin, Yuval Noah Harari, Niall Ferguson, Will and Ariel Durant, and people working on Big History. Maybe this book too. Some EA-adjacent discussion of this topic: 1, 2, 3, 4.