practically nobody uses these options (so there’s a huge available market, if there is potential product-market-fit. Also, it doesn’t seem like this will “simply happen” if none of us picks it up)
More than zero companies DO use them (google), which is some evidence for potential product-market-fit, more evidence than one usually gets
EAs & Rationalists have domain expertise here: People in our community are paying attention, participating, and advancing the cutting edge of the field of prediction markets
My next steps would be something like:
Get up to date about the idea of prediction markets within companies, and in parallel:
Talk to companies, try finding a specific thing they’d like to have a prediction market about, and what their pushbacks are (why do they say “no”?)
Prediction markets for using inside organizations (link, please discuss there) :
Probably useful if figured out how to do it right (since prediction markets are amazing in general)
Currently some options are available,
practically nobody uses these options (so there’s a huge available market, if there is potential product-market-fit. Also, it doesn’t seem like this will “simply happen” if none of us picks it up)
More than zero companies DO use them (google), which is some evidence for potential product-market-fit, more evidence than one usually gets
EAs & Rationalists have domain expertise here: People in our community are paying attention, participating, and advancing the cutting edge of the field of prediction markets
My next steps would be something like:
Get up to date about the idea of prediction markets within companies, and in parallel:
Talk to companies, try finding a specific thing they’d like to have a prediction market about, and what their pushbacks are (why do they say “no”?)